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I'm finding the election coverage strangely fascinating, but I have to work tomorrow so I should have going to bed hours ago need to sleep now.
Conclusions so far:
The BBC's analysis is still too geared to a two-party system - they're presenting the swing between the top and second parties in each seat, but the figures looking at the LD/Lab/Con gains in most English seats are far more informative in seeing whose support may be going to whom.
There's a substantial anti-Labour swing, much of which is going to the Tories rather than LibDems. How this plays out seems very locally variable - Labour voters seem more loyal when they're facing a Conservative in second place. Oh, but not in Carlisle. *shrug*
So... Labour is rejected, the Conservatives aren't accepted, LibDems aren't relevant - looks like a victory for 'None of the Above'.
Unless the next 300 seats are much more consistent, there won't even be a clear mandate for a coalition. Cameron seems the most likely given that Labour has been rejected and the LibDems haven't made huge gains. I was hoping they'd at least be able to provide a moral compass. Someone's just made the point that Clegg at least has experience of how to work in coalition. Interesting times ahead...
I really hope that out of this, and the polling station debacle, there's a serious look at electoral reform. I really, really hate the first past the post system.
Oh well, off to get 3.5 hours sleep. Maybe there'll be a prospective Government when I wake up.
Conclusions so far:
The BBC's analysis is still too geared to a two-party system - they're presenting the swing between the top and second parties in each seat, but the figures looking at the LD/Lab/Con gains in most English seats are far more informative in seeing whose support may be going to whom.
There's a substantial anti-Labour swing, much of which is going to the Tories rather than LibDems. How this plays out seems very locally variable - Labour voters seem more loyal when they're facing a Conservative in second place. Oh, but not in Carlisle. *shrug*
So... Labour is rejected, the Conservatives aren't accepted, LibDems aren't relevant - looks like a victory for 'None of the Above'.
Unless the next 300 seats are much more consistent, there won't even be a clear mandate for a coalition. Cameron seems the most likely given that Labour has been rejected and the LibDems haven't made huge gains. I was hoping they'd at least be able to provide a moral compass. Someone's just made the point that Clegg at least has experience of how to work in coalition. Interesting times ahead...
I really hope that out of this, and the polling station debacle, there's a serious look at electoral reform. I really, really hate the first past the post system.
Oh well, off to get 3.5 hours sleep. Maybe there'll be a prospective Government when I wake up.
